Washington, Oregon Face One of the Most Dangerous Wildfire Seasons on Record

A convergence of record-low snowpack, statewide drought, and above-normal spring temperatures has put the Pacific Northwest on a collision course with what forecasters warn could be one of the worst wildfire seasons in recent history. As Wildfire Awareness Month wraps up in May, state and federal agencies are bracing for a summer that could rival some of the most destructive fire years the region has ever seen.

Washington Declares Statewide Drought

On April 8, Washington formally declared a statewide drought — setting the stage for an early and potentially catastrophic fire season. Snow drought is currently widespread across the state, driven by unseasonably warm temperatures that delivered more rain than snow during the winter months. Snowpack across Washington remains far below normal, and snowmelt has occurred roughly one month earlier than historical averages.

"What we are likely to see are wildfires moving more quickly through forests," said one state hydrologist. "When we do have a large fire event, it is likely to move faster and be more significant."

NIFC Outlook: Dim Projections for the Northwest

On May 1, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) released its 2026 seasonal outlook, painting a sobering picture for the Pacific Northwest. The report highlighted persistent drought conditions in both eastern and western Washington, above-normal April temperatures statewide, and precipitation patterns that have trended dry throughout the spring.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that precipitation levels across the Northwest will remain below normal through at least the end of June — exactly the window when fire agencies typically rely on late spring moisture to hold fire danger in check.

Oregon's Willamette Valley Now in the Crosshairs

Oregon is facing a similar trajectory. According to NIFC's latest forecast, the Willamette Valley — a region not traditionally associated with large wildfire events — faces a significant wildfire risk beginning in August. A dry winter and spring, combined with a forecasted hot summer, have primed fuels across the western portion of the state in ways rarely seen.

Lane County emergency managers have urged residents to begin preparing evacuation plans and defensible space improvements now, well ahead of peak fire season.

Fires Are Burning Longer and Moving Faster

The U.S. Forest Service has been direct about the changing nature of wildfire. In a May news release, the agency stated: "Wildfires are burning longer, moving faster, and behaving less predictably than they did even a decade ago." USFS Deputy Chief Sarah Fisher, who heads Fire and Aviation Management, acknowledged all predictive models point to a challenging summer but expressed confidence in the agency's workforce and interagency systems.

Riva Duncan, president of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters and a retired USFS veteran, said even Western Washington — historically insulated from large wildfires — is no longer immune. "In Western Washington, you're seeing wildfires now where there weren't any before," Duncan said.

What Communities Should Do Now

Create or update your household evacuation plan and go-bag
Clear defensible space of at least 30 feet around structures
Sign up for your county's emergency alert system
Know your evacuation zone and multiple routes out
Monitor air quality forecasts at AirNow.gov during smoke events