Fire managers and state officials are bracing for what could be one of Washington’s most dangerous wildfire seasons in recent history, as a convergence of drought, record-low snowpack, above-normal spring temperatures, and a grim federal outlook points toward a difficult summer ahead.
The Drought Picture
Washington Governor Bob Ferguson declared a statewide drought emergency in April after a winter defined by rainfall where snow was expected. Snowpack across the state remains far below normal, and snowmelt occurred approximately one month earlier than the historical average — meaning rivers, reservoirs, and soils that typically stay wet into summer are already drying out.
According to Drought.gov, snow drought is currently widespread across Washington due to unseasonably warm temperatures that brought more rain than snow during the winter months. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that precipitation will remain below normal throughout May and June — traditionally the period when drying fuels ratchet up fire risk heading into summer.
NIFC Season Outlook
On May 1, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) released its 2026 wildfire season outlook, projecting elevated fire risk across the Pacific Northwest. The report cited persistent drought conditions in Western Washington, above-normal temperatures in April, and dry precipitation patterns as primary drivers of concern.
The USFS has echoed the alarm. “Wildfires are burning longer, moving faster and behaving less predictably than they did even a decade ago,” the agency said in a recent news release.
Western Washington: A New Risk Landscape
Historically, wildfire risk in Washington has been concentrated in the drier eastern portions of the state. But experts say that is changing rapidly. Riva Duncan, president of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters and a retired USFS employee, says Western Washington is seeing wildfires in places that never worried about them before.
“In Western Washington, you’re seeing wildfires now where there weren’t any before,” Duncan said. “It wasn’t something that people worried about, but everything is connected.”
She pointed to the Bear Gulch Fire in the Olympic National Forest in 2025, which burned more than 20,000 acres — the worst fire in the Olympic Peninsula since the Great Forks Fire of 1951. Duncan said climate change, manifesting as hotter temperatures, prolonged droughts, and drier conditions, is fundamentally reshaping fire behavior across the state.
“There’s no rest for hot shots and fire personnel across the country,” she added. “They continue to work year-round with fewer resources and poor pay.”
Agency Preparations
The U.S. Forest Service says it is aware of the early warning signs and preparing accordingly. “All of our predictive models point to a challenging summer,” said Deputy Chief Sarah Fisher, head of Fire and Aviation Management for the U.S. Forest Service. “But we have an incredible workforce and an interagency system built to adapt and meet challenges head-on.”
Washington state agencies are also staging additional resources and equipment ahead of the anticipated active season. State officials are working with local fire districts, tribal nations, and federal partners to coordinate pre-positioning of crews and air resources.
What Residents Should Know
Fire officials across Washington are urging residents — especially those in the wildland-urban interface — to take preparedness steps now, before fire season peaks. That means creating defensible space around homes, signing up for local emergency alerts, identifying evacuation routes, and having go-bags ready. The window to prepare is open now; once a fire is approaching, it is too late.