Fire weather forecasters and land management agencies are warning that the 2026 wildland fire season across the Pacific Northwest could be significantly more active than recent years, driven by a winter snow drought that has left mountains with depleted snowpack and landscapes drying out weeks ahead of schedule.

Snowpack Deficits Driving Concern

A persistent pattern of below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures during the winter and spring of 2025-26 has resulted in substantial snowpack deficits across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Snow drought conditions mean that seasonal stream flows are running low, soils are drying quickly, and fine fuels — grasses and brush — have cured earlier than typical.

Capital Press reported in April 2026 that above-normal wildfire risk was already projected for parts of northern California in May, moving into the Northwest east of the Cascades in June, and spreading into Idaho by July. That forecast has now arrived, with active wildfires already burning in all three PNW states.

NIFC Seasonal Outlook

The National Interagency Fire Center's May 2026 Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook, issued May 1 with an updated version due June 1, projects:

  • Above-normal fire potential for eastern Oregon and eastern Washington in June
  • Above-normal risk for Idaho and the northern Rockies in July and August
  • Below-normal precipitation likely in the Northwest and northern Rockies through peak summer
  • Temperatures above normal expected across the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest

Early Season Fires a Warning Sign

Idaho fire officials speaking with the Idaho Capital Sun on June 1 described the current conditions as alarming. The Summit Creek Fire near Oakley, which ignited May 25, and the Zen Fire in Oregon's Wasco County, also starting May 25, represent unusually early-season activity for the region.

Officials note that while Pacific Northwest fires typically peak in late July through September, early ignitions in June indicate that fuels are ready to burn now — meaning any prolonged heat wave or dry wind event this summer could produce extreme fire behavior across a wide area.

What This Means for Communities

Fire preparedness officials say residents throughout eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Idaho should treat June as fire season, not a pre-season warm-up. Key actions recommended include:

  • Clear defensible space of 30-100 feet around structures
  • Remove dead vegetation from roofs and gutters
  • Know your evacuation zone and plan multiple routes
  • Sign up for local emergency alerts
  • Avoid high-risk activities on windy, low-humidity days

The National Weather Service Boise office maintains a smoke forecast at weather.gov/boi/smoke, and the official air quality forecast for Idaho and Oregon can be found at fire.airnow.gov.