The combination of drought, record-early fire season onset, a developing El Niño pattern, and above-normal temperatures has set the stage for what forecasters and fire officials are describing as an exceptionally dangerous wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest. As Eastern Washington burns and Oregon operates under a governor-declared state of emergency, the weeks and months ahead are likely to bring even more challenging conditions.

Red Flag Warnings Already Hitting the Region

The National Weather Service issued red flag warnings for Central Oregon on June 17, citing a combination of high temperatures, critically low relative humidity (often falling below 15%), and strong winds. These are the conditions that create fire weather emergencies: existing fires become nearly impossible to contain, and new ignitions can grow to hundreds of acres within minutes.

Red flag conditions are expected to become increasingly common across Eastern Washington, Eastern Oregon, and Southern Idaho through July and August as the region transitions deeper into its dry season. Fire weather watches and red flag warnings are issued by the NWS when:

  • Wind speeds reach or exceed 25 mph
  • Relative humidity drops to 15% or below
  • Fine fuel moisture falls to critically dry levels

Drought Conditions Expanding Across the Region

Much of Eastern Washington, Eastern Oregon, and southern Idaho is currently experiencing drought conditions ranging from Abnormally Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2). Below-normal snowpack that melted early left soil moisture deficits that have been exacerbated by an unusually warm and dry spring. Grass, brush, and timber fuels have cured ahead of schedule, meaning fine fuels that ignite easily are available across a wide landscape.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought conditions that are expected to worsen — not improve — as summer progresses. The Pacific Northwest Interagency Coordination Center has flagged above-normal fire potential for the region through at least August, with conditions potentially persisting into September and October.

El Niño Raises the Stakes

A developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to influence Pacific Northwest weather through the summer. While El Niño is classically associated with warmer, drier winters and springs in the Northwest, fire weather experts note it can also contribute to more frequent critical fire weather days in summer and fall.

“With such a strong and early El Niño establishing, it could contribute to more critical wildfire days this summer,” according to meteorologists cited by the Yakima Herald-Republic. AccuWeather’s long-range forecast identifies a higher-than-average fire risk throughout the fall season in the Northwest, as that area trends both warmer and drier than average.

The NIFC Seasonal Outlook

The National Interagency Fire Center’s seasonal fire potential outlook, published for the June–September 2026 period, indicates:

  • Above normal fire potential for Washington and Oregon through July, August, and into September
  • Idaho above normal through July and August, particularly in the southern half of the state
  • The Pacific Northwest and Southeast identified as the most favored locations for above-normal temperatures nationally
  • Drought expected to persist or worsen across the region through summer

What This Means for Residents

Fire officials are urging all Pacific Northwest residents — not just those near current fires — to take preparedness actions now, while there is still time:

  • Create defensible space around your home by clearing dead vegetation, debris, and combustibles within 100 feet
  • Sign up for emergency alerts through your county emergency management office
  • Prepare a go-bag with documents, medications, water, and supplies for at least 72 hours
  • Know your evacuation route — and a backup — before a fire starts nearby
  • Follow all fire restrictions in your area; campfire and burning bans are in effect across most of the region