The Pacific Northwest is entering the 2026 wildfire season under some of the most troubling preseason conditions in recent history. Record-low snowpack, early snowmelt, persistent drought, and above-normal temperatures have set the stage for what federal forecasters are calling a potentially extreme fire year across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.
Snowpack Vanishes Weeks Early
Mountain snowpack across the region — the primary source of summer water and a natural barrier to early-season fire — has essentially disappeared far ahead of schedule. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), snowpack has melted out approximately 26 days early in Washington and 42 days early in Oregon. As of mid-May, snow is present at only about 10% of Snowpack Telemetry Network (SNOTEL) stations in Oregon and 40% in Washington.
Even though Washington received 104% of normal precipitation from October through February, too much of it fell as rain rather than snow. The snowpack peaked this season at around 50% of normal, and the available water in the snowpack was well under average across most of the region.
Oregon's winter was tied with 1934 as the warmest on record for the state, resulting in snowpack levels falling to roughly one-third of normal statewide, according to NOAA.
Drought Declarations and Historic Streamflow Lows
In April, Washington declared a statewide drought emergency — the fourth consecutive year the state has done so. Washington Department of Ecology Director Casey Sixkiller was direct in his assessment: "There is no way to sugar-coat what is happening. We have entered April with roughly half of our normal snowpack. In Washington, our summer water supply is stored in winter snowpack."
NIDIS reports that 24 of 46 streamflow forecast points in Washington for the April–September period are forecast to approach historic lows. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that precipitation in the Northwest will remain below normal through May and June, offering little chance of relief before summer heat arrives.
Fire Outlook: Elevated Risk Through Summer
The NIFC's 2026 seasonal outlook for the Pacific Northwest warns of above-normal wildland fire potential beginning in late spring and escalating through the summer months. The warm start to spring has allowed fuel drying to advance well ahead of normal, particularly east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington — the region's most fire-prone landscapes.
The NIFC outlook projects the largest increase in significant fire activity will arrive in July, with conditions comparable to the destructive fire years of 2018 and 2015.
Agencies Sound the Alarm
The U.S. Forest Service has publicly acknowledged what the data show. Deputy Chief Sarah Fisher, head of Fire and Aviation Management, stated: "All of our predictive models point to a challenging summer. But we have an incredible workforce and an interagency system built to adapt and meet challenges head-on."
Jeff Fedrizzi, assistant chief of operations for the Pacific Northwest with the U.S. Wildland Fire Service, was more pointed: "We are increasingly concerned that 2026 could rival the most extreme years on record for heat and dryness in the Pacific Northwest. Every visitor must understand that even one small spark can lead to a costly and destructive fire in these high-impact conditions."
Residents across the region are urged to prepare early — creating defensible space around their homes, reviewing evacuation plans, and signing up for local emergency alerts before peak fire season begins.