Oregon fire officials are sounding an urgent alarm: the 2026 wildfire season is expected to be one of the most severe in recent memory, driven by record low snowpack, extreme drought, and the early emergence of an El Nino weather pattern that could prolong dangerous conditions well into fall.

Oregon Governor Tina Kotek gathered state and federal fire agency leaders on May 5 to brief reporters ahead of Wildfire Awareness Month, warning that the season could start in earnest in June and extend through October.

The Conditions Setting the Stage

Oregon's winter 2025-2026 was among the warmest on record. Snowpack statewide is approximately one-third of normal levels, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — a deficit that will accelerate drying across rangeland and forest fuels. Nine Oregon counties are already under drought emergency declarations.

"It's not one thing that brings the wildfire season, it's many things," Governor Kotek said. "All indications suggest a more challenging fire season ahead of all of us."

Oregon State Forester Kacey KC said above-normal wildfire risk is expected east of the Cascades in rangeland areas beginning in June, with risk expanding to southwest Oregon and forest zones by July. The NIFC's seasonal outlook projects above-normal fire potential across Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Wyoming through August.

Season Already Started

The first Level 3 evacuation order (immediate evacuation) of 2026 occurred in La Pine in March, when the Riverview Fire burned 20 acres. That was followed by the Pine Mountain Fire on May 7, when a prescribed burn on the Deschutes National Forest escaped containment lines and grew to roughly 2,600 acres before firefighters achieved 70% containment.

Human Causes Remain the Top Threat

Despite improved suppression capacity, more than 60% of Oregon wildfires in 2025 were human-caused — a troubling reversal of a previous downward trend. The number one culprit: burning yard waste and debris.

Oregon State Fire Marshal Mariana Ruiz-Temple is encouraging residents to download the free Before You Burn app (beforeyouburn.net), which provides local burn regulations, burn status alerts, and fire weather information before any outdoor burning.

Resources in Place

Oregon's fire agencies have approximately 700 wildland firefighters and 300 fire trucks ready to protect 16 million acres of state-protected land. More than 300 local fire departments and federal and tribal firefighting resources are also available to support emergency response.

The NIFC seasonal outlook calls Idaho and the Pacific Northwest out specifically as areas likely to see above-normal temperatures and below-normal moisture through the summer months — the precise conditions that drive catastrophic fire years.