State and federal fire officials are raising the alarm about the 2026 wildfire season across the Pacific Northwest, with early indicators suggesting conditions may rival some of the worst fire years on record. A historically warm and dry winter, record-low snowpack, and prematurely dry vegetation are combining to create a dangerous early start to fire season.
Historic Snowpack Deficit
Oregon's 2026 winter was one of the warmest on record dating back to the 1890s, and produced the smallest amount of snow ever recorded compared to historical baselines stretching back to the 1940s. State climatologist Larry O'Neill said there is "no historical equivalent" for what Oregon experienced this past winter — worse than all previous major snow drought years the state has recorded.
The consequences for fire season are direct: snowmelt that would normally keep soils and fuels moist well into June has already largely dissipated, leaving grasses, brush, and timber unusually dry for late May.
Agency Concern at the Highest Level
"We are increasingly concerned that 2026 could rival the most extreme years on record for heat and dryness in the Pacific Northwest," said Jeff Fedrizzi, U.S. Wildland Fire Service assistant chief of operations for the Pacific Northwest, in a statement issued ahead of Memorial Day weekend.
The warning came as fire managers in Central Oregon moved campfire restrictions into effect weeks earlier than normal — a decision that historically would not have been made until mid-June or July. Officials with the Ochoco and Deschutes national forests, as well as the Bureau of Land Management Prineville District, cited warm and dry conditions as the driving factor behind the unusually early restrictions.
National Forecast
AccuWeather's newly released national wildfire forecast projects between 65,000 and 80,000 wildfires burning 5.5 to 8 million acres nationwide in 2026. The highest wildfire risk is forecast across the Southwest, Rockies, Great Basin, and the Interior Northwest — explicitly including parts of Oregon and Washington.
While the Northwest fire season may start near normal, forecasters warn that risk will expand sharply in July and August as mountain snow completely melts, fuels cure out, and dry thunderstorms begin sparking new ignitions at higher elevations. Above-normal temperatures are forecast to persist from May through August.
Early Fire Activity Already Underway
Oregon has already documented several early-season wildfires. The Columbia Gorge saw fire activity in late May near Biggs Junction in Sherman County, prompting temporary closure of Interstate 84 due to smoke and visibility hazards. On the Washington side, the Country Meadows Fire in Benton County near Kennewick burned approximately 250 acres in dry grasslands. In Central Oregon, the Trout Creek Fire burned 43 acres near Sisters before being fully contained, and a Pine Mountain prescribed burn escaped its planned boundaries, growing to approximately 2,500 acres.
Fire officials emphasize that the early activity is a preview, not an anomaly. Communities across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho should be reviewing their evacuation plans, clearing defensible space around structures, and staying informed about local fire restrictions now — before peak summer conditions arrive.