The National Interagency Fire Center’s latest seasonal outlook projects above-normal wildfire potential across the Pacific Northwest east of the Cascades beginning in June, with that elevated risk spreading to southwestern Oregon forests by July. The forecast is driven by a confluence of climate factors that fire scientists say are creating one of the most dangerous pre-season setups in years.

Key Drivers of the Elevated Forecast

Several interlocking conditions underpin the elevated outlook:

  • Snow drought — Snowpack across the West is described as “well below normal” by NIFC analysts, with many river basins at critically low levels heading into the summer runoff season. Oregon’s snowpack measured roughly one-third of normal this winter.
  • Expanding drought — Drought conditions have expanded rapidly across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. Nine Oregon counties have already received emergency drought declarations. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows large portions of eastern Oregon and southern Idaho in severe to extreme drought.
  • Warm temperatures — Oregon’s winter was among the warmest on record. NOAA forecasts above-normal temperatures and below-average precipitation across the region through October.
  • El Niño pattern — An emerging climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean is increasing the likelihood of warmer, drier conditions and the kind of dry thunderstorms that can produce multiple simultaneous lightning-strike fire starts.
  • Carryover fine fuels — Significant carryover of fine fuel loading, particularly in southern and eastern Idaho, northern Utah, and adjacent areas, adds to the risk of rapid fire spread in grassland and rangeland settings.

Timeline of Risk

Based on the NIFC outlook, fire managers are watching the following progression:

  • June — Above-normal fire potential emerges east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington, and across southern and eastern Idaho rangeland.
  • July — Risk spreads to southwestern Oregon timber country and intensifies across interior Washington and Idaho.
  • August–September — Typically the peak of fire season, with the outlook suggesting risk could extend well into fall if monsoon moisture fails to develop in the region.

Year-to-Date National Context

Through early May, 2026 has already seen 1.88 million acres burn nationally — 194% of the previous 10-year average for the same period. While much of that activity has been concentrated in the Southern Area and Southwest, the early-season national numbers reflect a fire landscape that is broadly more active than historical norms.

State Forester Kacey KC noted at Oregon’s recent wildfire season briefing: “If you want a bad wildfire season, you start with a bad snowpack — and right now we have exactly that.”

What Communities Should Do Now

NIFC and state fire agencies urge communities in the elevated-risk zones to use the window before peak fire season to take protective action:

  • Create and maintain defensible space around structures (clear 100 feet where possible)
  • Clean gutters and remove dead vegetation from roofs
  • Know your evacuation zone and have a “go bag” ready
  • Sign up for local emergency alerts through your county sheriff or emergency management office
  • Follow all current and upcoming fire restrictions on public lands