The National Interagency Fire Center's latest Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook projects above-normal wildfire risk across the entire Northwest Geographic Area from June through September, with forecasters seeing no sign of conditions improving before the end of the traditional fire season.

The forecast, issued in late May and covering the June through September period, identifies the region east of the Cascade Range — including eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and southern Idaho — as the area of greatest concern for the early part of the season. Above-normal potential is expected to expand as summer progresses.

Driving Factors

Several converging factors are behind the elevated outlook:

  • Below-normal snowpack: Much of the Pacific Northwest experienced a poor snowpack winter in 2025-26, leading to earlier-than-normal snowmelt and soil moisture deficits that have allowed fuels to dry out faster than usual.
  • Above-normal temperatures: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows most of Oregon and Washington strongly favored for above-normal temperatures through summer 2026. Prolonged heat accelerates fuel curing and reduces relative humidity.
  • Drought persistence: Drought conditions across the eastern portions of both states are limiting moisture recovery between weather events.
  • Early fuel curing: Annual grasses east of the Cascades have cured weeks ahead of the historical average, extending the period during which fast-moving grass fires pose a threat.

Month-by-Month Outlook

NIFC's predictive services team breaks the forecast down by period:

  • June: Above-normal potential concentrated east of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington, and in southern Idaho. Fire weather season is considered "established."
  • July-August: Above-normal potential expands to include the western slopes of the Cascades and extends northward into the Columbia Basin and Okanogan Highlands.
  • September: Above-normal potential persists across the entire Northwest Geographic Area, with "no indication of late-season relief."

Resource Implications

The above-normal outlook triggers increased mobilization planning at all levels. The Northwest Coordination Center in Portland and the Northern Rockies Coordination Center in Missoula are coordinating pre-season resource positioning, including:

  • Pre-positioning of Type 1 and Type 2 Incident Management Teams
  • Early activation of exclusive use air tanker contracts
  • Coordination with Canada on potential cross-border resource sharing
  • Increased staffing at local dispatch centers

The 2026 fire season is also notable because it arrives at a moment when Congress and the Biden administration have been negotiating the future of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law fire resilience funding. A multi-billion-dollar federal investment in hazardous fuel reduction, forest health, and community resilience has been funding work across the Northwest, but funding authorization questions remain unresolved heading into the height of the season.

For the public, the forecast serves as a clear signal: the time to prepare is now, not when smoke is on the horizon.