Fire weather forecasters are tracking a pattern shift across the Pacific Northwest this week that could extend elevated fire conditions into late October, even as the broader 2026 fire season enters its wind-down phase. A brief cool trough is providing temporary relief, but an above-normal temperature and below-normal precipitation pattern is expected to return and dominate the region through at least October 25.

The Current Pattern: Trough, Then Ridge

As of October 19, the West is under the influence of a trough of low pressure that has brought cooler-than-normal temperatures — running 10 to 20 degrees below normal west of the Rockies — and widespread moisture across the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. Breezy north-to-northeast winds have been gusting to 35 mph across the Columbia Basin and much of Oregon, promoting rapid drying of surface fuels even as temperatures drop.

This cool interruption is not expected to last. The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 6-10 day outlook (October 16-20) and 8-14 day outlook (October 18-24) both favor above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the broader Pacific Northwest, including Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. CPC rates confidence in both outlooks at 4 out of 5 — notably high for extended-range forecasts.

What the Ridge Means for Fire Risk

The return of a high-pressure ridge over the West typically brings the combination of warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and offshore or downslope wind events that fire weather forecasters watch most closely in the fall. In the Pacific Northwest, east winds funneled through mountain passes and river drainages can rapidly lower relative humidity to critical levels — often below 15% — in areas that have not yet received significant autumn precipitation.

The Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest, the Columbia Gorge, and drainages leading from Oregon's eastern Cascades to the Willamette Valley are among the areas most susceptible to these drying wind patterns. The Sisi Fire in North Cascades, still only 34% contained, could see temporarily increased activity during dry, windy afternoon windows.

PNW Holds at Elevated, Northern Rockies Step Down

According to NIFC Predictive Services' October forecast, the Pacific Northwest is holding at "elevated" wildland fire potential for this period — one step below "above normal." The Northern Rockies have stepped down to "below normal" after a weekend winter storm brought snow to Montana and a wet September kept grasses green across much of the region.

Northern California remains at "above normal" fire potential, while the Great Basin climbs to above normal as well, driven by far western Nevada's lack of significant rain since mid-August. The Southwest remains relatively quiet.

Red Flag Events This Month

A National Weather Service analysis earlier this month confirmed that the NWS issued a rare Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning across parts of Eastern Washington and Oregon — including the Spokane and Pendleton forecast zones — highlighting the continued potential for significant fire weather events in the region even in mid-October. Such warnings are reserved for situations where extreme fire weather is expected to create conditions capable of fire runs that challenge suppression capabilities.

Preparedness Recommendations

Fire agencies are reminding residents in fire-prone areas of the Pacific Northwest that autumn fire weather can be deceptive — cooler temperatures and the approaching end of "official" fire season can lead to reduced vigilance just as dry east wind events create serious ignition risk. Key precautions for the next two weeks include:

  • Avoid outdoor burning, target shooting, and other ignition-risk activities on Red Flag Warning days
  • Keep defensible space clear of accumulated leaves and debris, which are now dry and highly combustible
  • Monitor local National Weather Service forecasts for Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches
  • Ensure your household has a go-bag and evacuation plan ready through at least early November

The National Weather Service Portland, Spokane, and Boise offices are the primary sources for fire weather watches and Red Flag Warnings affecting Oregon, Washington, and Idaho respectively.