Although the 2026 wildfire season is winding down across much of the Pacific Northwest, fire weather advisories remain in effect Thursday for southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho, where low relative humidity values of 10 to 20 percent and locally gusty winds continue to maintain elevated fire danger.

Lingering Risk at Season's Edge

The National Weather Service office in Boise reported fire weather conditions remain marginal to locally critical across portions of the Great Basin interface Thursday morning. Southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon have been the last pockets of the Pacific Northwest to retain meaningful fire weather risk as fall weather patterns push moisture into the region from the Pacific.

Relative humidity values in affected areas are forecast to drop to between 10 and 20 percent during afternoon hours, with winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph in exposed terrain. While these conditions would have driven aggressive fire behavior during the height of the summer season, curing grass and brush fuels tempered by recent precipitation have reduced the overall hazard substantially compared to peak season.

Seasonal Outlook: Transition Well Underway

NIFC's October 1, 2026 Predictive Services seasonal outlook noted that Energy Release Component (ERC) values have dropped across the Northwest since the beginning of October, reflecting the seasonal transition. The outlook calls for equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures across Oregon and Washington through October, with the overall fire potential picture continuing to diminish as day length decreases and sun angles lower.

Predictive Services noted that October fire weather potential will still depend largely on regional ridging and troughing, frontal passages, and the balance between offshore and onshore flow patterns — the same dynamics that drove some of the region's most explosive fire weather events this summer.

What Remains to Watch

Despite the favorable seasonal trend, fire managers and residents in southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho are reminded that:

  • Active fire weather warnings can still materialize through October, particularly with offshore flow events
  • Burning restrictions may still be in place in some counties — check with local authorities before igniting debris piles or campfires
  • Any new fire starts in dry grass and brush areas can still spread rapidly during afternoon wind events
  • Post-fire areas with burned vegetation are particularly vulnerable to rapid spread

Residents in fire-prone areas should continue to monitor NWS forecasts and local emergency alert systems through the end of the official fire season.