The convergence of a record-warm winter, historically low snowpack, and early spring drying across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho has fire officials across the Pacific Northwest issuing some of the most urgent pre-season warnings in recent memory. With the hottest, driest months still ahead, all the ingredients for a severe 2026 wildfire season appear to be in place.
The Numbers Behind the Concern
Oregon experienced one of its warmest winters on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Snowpack levels across the Northwest tracked at roughly one-third of normal heading into spring — a critical shortfall, since snowmelt typically provides the moisture that keeps vegetation from drying out through June and July.
In Washington, drought conditions persisted in western parts of the state throughout most of the year, with April bringing above-normal temperatures and precipitation patterns that leaned dry. AccuWeather's 2026 wildfire forecast identified the Northwest as among the areas facing "persistent wildfire risk" through the season, and NIFC's own seasonal outlook maintains a below-normal precipitation signal for the region through the summer and into early fall.
Idaho Bracing for Peak Season
Idaho State Forester Julia Lauch told the State Board of Land Commissioners in May that by August, the entire state is expected to have above-normal significant fire potential. That assessment is consistent with drought monitor data showing widespread dry conditions across southern and central Idaho — the same areas already seeing early fire activity in late May.
"The biggest thing people can do is remember that most wildfires are preventable," said Idaho Department of Lands Director Dustin Miller. "Keep campfires small, never leave them unattended, make sure they are dead out before you leave and avoid activities that can create sparks in dry vegetation."
Oregon: Full Staffing but Structural Uncertainty
The Oregon Department of Forestry has confirmed full staffing for the 2026 fire season — approximately 1,200 employees statewide, consistent with recent years. Oregon's congressional delegation, however, has raised pointed concerns about the capacity of federal agencies to respond to what they are calling an expected severe season. (See related story on federal staffing concerns.)
At the state level, Oregon has already awarded wildfire staffing grants to 180 local fire agencies — including departments in Washington County communities like Banks and Gaston — to help supplement local capacity in the wildland-urban interface. The Prineville District and Deschutes National Forest both wrapped up spring prescribed burning ahead of the season transition.
Washington: Fires Burning Longer and Moving Faster
Washington state officials have described a fire environment that is evolving in dangerous ways — fires burning for longer periods, moving faster, and under a wider range of conditions than in past decades. The combination of climate-driven drying, earlier snowmelt, and record warm temperatures is compressing the window between spring green-up and full fire season readiness.
Washington DNR and other agencies continue to post current fire incident information on InciWeb and through the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center's morning briefings.
El Niño Wildcard
NIFC notes that the nation is in the middle of a transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions, a pattern that historically has supported near-normal fire seasons in the northern Rockies. However, forecasters say the unusually low snowpack and warm winter baseline mean confidence in that outcome is only moderate. A potentially early El Niño pattern arriving in summer rather than later in the year could further stir up temperatures and drive lightning storm activity into fall. The Pacific Northwest should be prepared for an active fire season regardless of where the climate pattern ultimately lands.