Fire officials, emergency managers, and meteorologists across the Pacific Northwest are converging on a sobering consensus: the 2026 wildfire season could be one of the most challenging in recent memory, driven by a winter that delivered too little snow in the mountains and too little rain in the valleys.

Oregon officials have warned explicitly that the combination of drought, record-low snowpack, and warmer and drier conditions is raising fire risk across the state. The National Interagency Fire Center's seasonal outlook maps confirm elevated fire risk across most of Washington state in June and July, with that elevated risk expanding to encompass all of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho by August.

AccuWeather's Outlook: A "Brutal Summer" Possible

AccuWeather meteorologists have released a sobering 2026 Oregon fire forecast, noting that drought and prolonged heat are continuing to intensify wildfire conditions across much of the West. The forecast warns that smoke from major fires could create air quality concerns far beyond the areas where fires actually burn — a pattern that PNW residents who suffered through the smoke-choked summers of 2017, 2020, and 2021 will find grimly familiar.

The window between late spring and full summer has already shown signs of stress: fires in the Columbia Gorge corridor and in Southern Idaho erupted in late May under conditions that would normally be reserved for August.

What's Driving the Risk

Several factors combine to make 2026 particularly concerning:

  • Snowpack: Mountain snowpack across the Cascades and much of the Pacific Northwest came in well below average this winter, meaning rivers, streams, and soils are drying out faster and earlier than usual.
  • Drought: Drought conditions have persisted across eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and much of Idaho through the spring, leaving rangeland grasses, shrubs, and forest understories with critically low moisture content.
  • Fuel accumulation: Decades of fire suppression have allowed dense undergrowth to accumulate across much of the region's public forestland, providing abundant ladder fuels when conditions turn critical.
  • Early ignitions: Human-caused fires along highway corridors and dry lightning events have already demonstrated the ignition risk present in the landscape weeks ahead of the traditional fire season peak.

East of the Cascades on Alert

Fire risk is expected to increase most dramatically east of the Cascades beginning in June. Communities in Central Oregon, the Columbia Basin, the Snake River Plain, and Eastern Washington face the highest near-term risk. Southern Oregon counties including Jackson, Josephine, Douglas, and Klamath are also under heightened concern as summer approaches.

Fire agencies across the region are urging residents to begin preparation now — well before a fire threatens their neighborhood. This includes creating defensible space around structures, preparing go-bags, identifying evacuation routes, and signing up for local emergency alerts.