AccuWeather has released its 2026 wildfire season forecast, and the outlook for Oregon, the broader Pacific Northwest, and the United States as a whole is sobering. Meteorologists are projecting between 5.5 million and 8 million acres will burn nationally this year — well above the 10-year average and exceeding the 5.13 million acres consumed in 2025.

The Driving Forces

"Drought, above-average temperatures and below-average snowpack will set the stage for a growing fire danger as the summer progresses," wrote Brian Lada, a meteorologist for AccuWeather, in the firm's 2026 wildfire season outlook. The forecast identifies three converging factors that make 2026 particularly dangerous:

  • Drought: Much of the western United States entered 2026 in drought conditions that were not relieved by a below-average winter precipitation season. Soil moisture deficits are widespread across Oregon, Idaho, and the Great Basin.
  • Heat: Above-average temperatures are forecast to persist through the summer across the Pacific Northwest and much of the West, accelerating the drying of already-compromised fuels.
  • Snowpack: Below-average snowpack means that mountain snowmelt — which typically keeps high-elevation fuels moist into July or August — will run out earlier, leaving alpine and forest fuels vulnerable well before the traditional peak of fire season.

Fewer Fires, But Bigger

An important nuance in the AccuWeather forecast is that 2026 may actually see fewer total fire ignitions than some past years. However, the combination of drought, heat, and dry fuels means that fires that do ignite are expected to grow larger and spread faster before firefighting crews can contain them. The net result: more total acreage burned despite potentially fewer ignition events.

This pattern is consistent with the early-season trend already visible in NIFC data. The Sailor Cap Fire in Idaho and the weekend gorge fires in Oregon both exhibited explosive early growth — behavior driven not by an unusual number of ignitions but by fuel conditions that allow any fire to escape initial attack rapidly.

Pacific Northwest: Persistent Risk

AccuWeather specifically identifies the Pacific Northwest as facing a "persistent wildfire risk" throughout the 2026 season. Oregon and Washington face an elevated risk window that is expected to begin earlier than usual and extend later into the fall — a widening of the traditional fire season window that has been observed across the West over the past decade.

Smoke transport is another concern highlighted by the forecast. Major fires in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and neighboring states can push smoke columns hundreds of miles, creating air quality events in communities far from active flames — including Portland, Seattle, Boise, and smaller communities that may have no local fires but still experience days of unhealthy air.

What the Forecast Means for Communities

For Pacific Northwest residents, the AccuWeather forecast is a call to preparedness action, not paralysis. Key steps fire officials recommend:

  • Create or update defensible space around homes — the single most effective structural protection measure.
  • Build or refresh an emergency go-bag for 72 hours of self-sufficiency.
  • Know multiple evacuation routes and practice them with family members.
  • Sign up for local emergency alerts (Alert Oregon, AlertSense in Washington, Idaho Office of Emergency Management notifications).
  • Understand that air quality can deteriorate rapidly during fire events — have N95 masks and air purifiers available.
  • Have a plan for pets and livestock.

With the 2026 season already demonstrating its potential in late May, officials are urging residents not to wait. The best time to prepare for a dangerous fire season is before it fully arrives.