AccuWeather Forecasts Active 2026 Fire Season for Pacific Northwest as Historic Snow Drought Raises Alarm

A convergence of record-warm winter temperatures, historic low snowpack, and early vegetation dry-out is setting the stage for what forecasters are calling a potentially severe wildfire season across Oregon, Washington, and the Interior Northwest. AccuWeather's newly released 2026 wildfire forecast paints a sobering picture for the region, with the Pacific Northwest identified as one of the highest-risk zones in the country.

Oregon's Worst Winter Snowpack on Record

Oregon's 2025-26 winter season was one of the warmest on record dating back to the 1890s, and it produced the smallest snowpack ever measured compared to records dating back to the 1940s. State climatologist Larry O'Neill described the situation in stark terms: "As far as we can tell, there is no historical equivalent — it was slightly worse than all the other big snow drought years we've had."

That dramatic lack of winter moisture has cascading consequences for wildfire risk. Snowpack serves as a slow-release water reservoir for forests and rangelands through the spring and early summer. Without it, soils dry out earlier, grasses cure faster, and forest fuels enter critical fire weather thresholds weeks ahead of schedule — exactly the pattern fire managers are now seeing across Oregon and southern Idaho.

National Outlook

AccuWeather's national forecast projects between 65,000 and 80,000 wildfires across the United States in 2026, burning an estimated 5.5 million to 8 million acres. That compares to 77,850 fires that burned 5.1 million acres in 2025. AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada noted that while fire counts could be similar to recent years, fires are expected to grow larger and move faster before suppression crews can establish control.

"Drought, above-average temperatures and below-average snowpack will set the stage for a growing fire danger as the summer progresses," Lada wrote in the agency's forecast summary.

Highest-Risk Zones Include the Interior Northwest

Forecasters identified the highest wildfire risk zones for 2026 as the Southwest, Rockies, Great Basin, and the Interior Northwest — a designation that encompasses eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Idaho. These areas share common risk factors: sagebrush steppe and grassland fuels that green up briefly in spring before rapidly drying out, limited summer precipitation, and increasing temperatures that accelerate moisture evaporation from vegetation.

NIFC Year-to-Date Statistics Already Above Averages

Data from the National Interagency Fire Center underscores the elevated trajectory of the 2026 fire year. As of May 22, 2026, the nation had already recorded 29,023 fires burning more than 2.3 million acres — well above the ten-year average of approximately 20,055 fires and 1.17 million acres for the same period. Eighteen large fires remain uncontained nationally, with more than 5,000 firefighting personnel currently deployed to incidents across the country.

Smoke a Region-Wide Concern

AccuWeather meteorologists also warned that smoke from major fires could create air quality concerns well beyond the immediate fire areas, affecting population centers across the Pacific Northwest. Communities in the Willamette Valley, Puget Sound lowlands, and major Columbia Basin cities like Kennewick, Yakima, and Pendleton have all experienced significant smoke events in recent years that impacted public health even when no local fires were burning.