Federal fire forecasters are warning that the 2026 wildfire season will be more active than normal across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho — and that the risk window is arriving several weeks earlier than the historical norm. Residents across the Pacific Northwest are urged to finalize emergency preparations now, before the peak of fire season arrives.

What the NIFC Outlook Forecasts

The National Interagency Fire Center's Predictive Services June–September 2026 Outlook projects above-normal significant fire potential across much of the western United States, with the Northwest and Inland West facing the most sustained elevated risk through the season.

  • June: Above-normal fire potential is already present across the Inland Northwest, including the Idaho panhandle, eastern Oregon, and eastern Washington. Early-season fires in Idaho and Oregon in the first week of June confirm this outlook.
  • July: The above-normal zone is expected to spread into more of the northern Great Basin, southwest Montana, southwest Oregon, and northwest Washington as conditions continue to dry and heat.
  • August: Above-normal significant fire potential is forecast across virtually the entire Pacific Northwest — all of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, plus southwest Montana. This represents one of the most widespread high-risk outlooks in recent years.

Why the Risk Is Elevated

Multiple factors are converging to raise the fire risk profile for the Northwest this season:

  • El Niño warmth and dryness: A developing El Niño pattern is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest through the summer months, suppressing precipitation and elevating temperatures.
  • Heavy spring grass crop: An exceptionally wet April across eastern Oregon, Washington, and Idaho — some locations recorded the wettest April since World War II — produced a dense crop of annual grasses that have now cured under early-summer heat. These standing dry grasses represent an unusually high fine-fuel load that can carry fire rapidly.
  • Early-season ignitions in heavy fuels: Researchers note some fires are already burning in heavier timber and brush fuels at higher elevations — unusual for early June — signaling that fire activity is intensifying across a broader range of fuel types than typically seen at this point in the season.
  • Below-normal snowpack and intensifying drought: Mountain snowpack across the Cascades and Northern Rockies melted out earlier than average this spring, accelerating soil moisture drawdown. Drought conditions are intensifying across interior portions of all three states.

The Early Start

The 2026 season has seen more acres burned nationwide through early June than any comparable period in recent years except 2022. Year-to-date fire statistics through June 5 show 31,511 fires and nearly 2.5 million acres burned — well above the 10-year average of 22,400 fires and 1.28 million acres. Forecasters say the risk period for large, damaging fires in the Northwest is arriving several weeks ahead of the traditional peak that typically develops in late July and August.

What Residents Should Do Now

With above-normal conditions forecast to intensify through the summer, fire officials urge Pacific Northwest residents to take action before the season reaches its peak:

  • Create defensible space — Clear vegetation at least 30 feet around structures; extend to 100 feet in high-risk zones
  • Prepare a go-bag and evacuation plan — Know two ways out of your neighborhood and have essential documents, medications, and supplies ready
  • Sign up for emergency alerts — Register with your county emergency management office for evacuation notifications
  • Harden your home — Ember-resistant vents, Class A roofing, and ember guards on eaves can dramatically improve home survivability
  • Know your community's evacuation levels — Oregon, Washington, and Idaho all use a Level 1-2-3 system (Ready-Set-Go); understand what each level means for your household