Forecasters and fire scientists are sounding alarms about the 2026 wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest, with multiple outlooks converging on a troubling picture: drought, below-average snowpack, and above-average temperatures are setting the stage for an active and potentially severe fire season across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.

AccuWeather fire weather forecasters project that 5.5 to 8 million acres could burn nationally in 2026 — a range that would place this season among the most destructive on record. As of late May, the season is already running significantly ahead of pace, with 2.3 million acres burned nationwide through May 22 compared to a 10-year average of just 1.17 million acres at the same date.

Northwest Snowpack at Historic Lows

The fire risk in the Pacific Northwest is directly tied to a devastating snowpack season. Across Washington's Cascade Range and portions of the Oregon Cascades and northern Idaho mountains, snowpack measurements came in at or near record lows this winter, with some sites recording less than 20 percent of average. The consequences are cascading:

  • Streams and rivers are running lower than normal for the season, creating drought-stressed vegetation
  • Forest and shrubland fuels are drying out weeks ahead of their typical schedule
  • Fire season is effectively starting a month or more earlier than historical norms
  • Drought conditions are expanding and intensifying across the interior Pacific Northwest

NIFC Seasonal Outlook

The National Interagency Fire Center's May seasonal outlook identifies above-normal significant fire potential for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest from June through August. The outlook, developed by predictive services specialists from eight federal agencies, uses long-term climate forecasts, current drought indices, and fuel moisture assessments.

The broadest and most persistent wildfire risk is expected from the Southwest northward through the Rockies, Great Basin, Idaho, western Montana, and into parts of the Northwest — essentially a continuous corridor of elevated fire potential through the interior West.

What This Means for Oregon, Washington, and Idaho

For Pacific Northwest residents and communities, the outlook translates into several near-term concerns:

  • Earlier fire season start: Fire restrictions are already in place on federal lands in Oregon and Washington — weeks ahead of typical timing.
  • Reduced suppression windows: Lower humidity and earlier fuel drying mean fire managers have fewer days of favorable conditions for both suppression and prescribed burning.
  • Community preparation urgency: Defensible space clearing, home hardening, and evacuation planning are more important than ever, and communities are urged not to wait until fire season is underway.
  • Air quality impacts: A more active season means greater likelihood of smoke impacts to communities across the region, particularly in valleys where smoke can pool and persist.

Residents can track fire danger and preparedness resources through the Oregon Department of Forestry at oregon.gov/odf, the Washington Department of Natural Resources fire page, and the Idaho Department of Lands. NIFC's current preparedness level and seasonal outlook are available at nifc.gov.