2026 Wildfire Season Outlook: Drought, Low Snowpack Set Stage for Dangerous Summer Across the Northwest

As the calendar turns to June, wildfire forecasters are delivering a stark message to residents across the Pacific Northwest: the conditions driving fire risk in 2026 are among the most concerning in recent memory, and the season's most dangerous months are still ahead.

Drought Gripping the Region

As of mid-May, 82 percent of Oregon was experiencing some level of drought, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada. The Cascades of Southern Oregon had already reached the extreme drought category — a rare distinction for late spring. The situation is similarly concerning across much of eastern Washington and southern Idaho, where limited winter precipitation left soil moisture at critically low levels heading into the fire season.

"Drought, above-average temperatures, and below-average snowpack will set the stage for a growing fire danger as the summer progresses," Lada wrote in AccuWeather's 2026 Oregon wildfire outlook, released in late May.

Historically Low Snowpack

Snowpack across the Pacific Northwest came in well below average during the 2025–2026 winter season. Mountain snowpack serves as a natural reservoir that keeps forests moist deep into summer, moderating fire risk during the critical July and August window. With limited snowpack to draw from, forests and rangeland fuels east of the Cascades are expected to reach critical dryness earlier than in a typical year.

Washington's Department of Natural Resources, in its annual fire season briefing held in mid-May, described conditions as "worse than normal," warning that fires this summer could be burning longer and moving faster than in previous seasons.

NIFC Seasonal Outlook

The National Interagency Fire Center's June 1 seasonal outlook reinforces regional concerns. The warm start to spring and limited mid-elevation snow are expected to allow drying to advance into early summer, especially east of the Cascades. Seasonal guidance maintains a warm temperature tilt through July and August, supporting an expectation of increasing fire activity across the Northern Rockies and the Columbia Basin as summer progresses.

The National Preparedness Level stands at 2 on a scale of 1 to 5, with the nation entering peak season. NIFC notes that while some areas of the West may see isolated wet thunderstorms in the coming days, the driest conditions will persist across the Southwest, Great Basin, and regions east of the Cascades, where minimum relative humidity values can range from the single digits to around 30 percent.

Governor Kotek Issues Early Warning

Oregon Governor Tina Kotek issued an early public warning in May, urging residents across the state to begin preparing for a potentially severe 2026 fire season. The Oregon Department of Forestry documented multiple wildfires in the state during the spring, including the Trout Creek Fire in Central Oregon on the Deschutes National Forest outside of Sisters — an unusually early incident for that area.

What This Means for Residents

With fire weather conditions expected to intensify through June, officials across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho are urging residents in fire-prone communities to take immediate preparedness steps:

Create defensible space around structures — clear vegetation within 30 feet
Assemble a go-bag with essential documents, medications, and supplies for 72 hours
Know your evacuation routes and have a family communication plan
Sign up for local emergency alerts (OregonAlerts, WA AlertSense)
Get insured and review your policy's wildfire coverage limits