Fire managers, climatologists, and state emergency agencies are raising alarm bells heading into the summer of 2026: the Pacific Northwest is facing one of the worst pre-season fire weather setups in recent memory. A combination of historic snowpack deficits, early melt-out, and persistent drought has left Oregon, Washington, and Idaho forests and grasslands primed to burn weeks ahead of the typical fire season onset.

Snowpack Collapse: A Region-Wide Crisis

The data tells a stark story. According to reporting by climate analysts and state agencies:

  • 87 percent of weather stations across Washington State are currently reporting snow drought conditions.
  • 91 percent of Oregon stations are similarly flagging snow drought.
  • Washington snowpack is sitting at just 50 percent of normal, prompting the Washington Department of Ecology to declare a statewide drought emergency — the fourth consecutive year such a declaration has been issued.
  • Snowmelt has occurred approximately one month earlier than normal, meaning landscapes that would typically remain moist into June are already drying out.

The Tacoma News Tribune noted in a recent analysis that 2026 could be one of the worst wildfire seasons in Washington State history, citing the combination of persistent below-normal rainfall and the dramatic snowpack shortfall.

El Nino Transition Adds Complexity

The National Interagency Coordination Center predictive services team notes that the ongoing transition from La Nina to El Nino typically supports near-normal fire seasons in the northern Rockies and Great Basin — but cautions that the unusually low snowpack and a mild, dry spring are creating conditions that could override that signal. Confidence in the seasonal outlook is characterized as moderate, and fire potential is expected to increase and peak in late summer and early autumn across the region.

WeatherBug 2026 summer outlook projects that the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and the northern Rockies are likely to slowly degrade into drought through this summer, with wildfire potential increasing and peaking in late summer and early autumn.

Early Fire Season Already Underway

The already-active 2026 fire season nationally — with 31,511 fires burning 2.5 million acres by early June, roughly double the 10-year average acreage — suggests that what managers feared is already becoming reality across the West. While the Pacific Northwest has so far escaped the worst, Idaho's Summit Creek Fire and volatile forecast conditions signal that the region's fire season has effectively begun.

What Residents Should Know

Fire officials and emergency managers across the PNW are urging residents in fire-prone areas to:

  • Create or refresh defensible space of at least 30 feet around structures — clear dead vegetation, trim tree limbs, and remove debris from roofs and gutters.
  • Prepare a go bag with important documents, medications, water, and supplies for at least 72 hours.
  • Sign up for local emergency alerts through county emergency management offices.
  • Know your evacuation zone level and have a plan for multiple routes out of your community.

Oregon and Washington both offer online resources at wildfire.oregon.gov/prepare and dnr.wa.gov respectively.