Fire managers and meteorologists are sounding early alarms for the 2026 wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest. A combination of below-average mountain snowpack, persistent drought conditions, and an accelerated spring warm-up has federal forecasters predicting an above-normal fire season that could get an early start — potentially as soon as late May across lower elevations in Oregon and Washington.

Snowpack Running Below Average

Snow water equivalent (SWE) readings across the Cascades and interior ranges of the PNW came in at 60–75% of median for the April 1 benchmark — a critical measuring point used to predict summer soil moisture and fuel conditions. The Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon and the Okanogan Highlands of north-central Washington were among the most severely affected areas, with SWE levels at or below 60% of normal.

Low snowpack directly translates to earlier snowmelt, which means soils and fuels dry out weeks sooner than typical years. Fire behavior analysts note that every additional week of dry conditions matters: grasses cure faster, shrubs reach critically low moisture levels, and the window for effective prescribed burning narrows.

Drought Conditions Persist

The U.S. Drought Monitor entering May 2026 shows Moderate to Severe Drought (D1–D2) blanketing much of eastern Oregon, southeastern Washington, and southern Idaho. Exceptional drought pockets persist in the Klamath Basin region — an area that saw historically destructive fire activity in recent years.

Groundwater deficits built up over consecutive dry winters mean that even normal spring precipitation does little to restore deep soil moisture. Fine fuels that cure early and coarse fuels that remain critically dry create the combination fire weather forecasters watch most closely.

NIFC Outlook: Above Normal Potential

The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for May–August 2026 places Oregon, Washington, and Idaho in an above-normal fire potential category beginning in June. The outlook cites three primary drivers:

  • La Niña remnant influence contributing to below-normal precipitation across the southern PNW
  • Record warm sea-surface temperatures off the Pacific Coast reinforcing above-normal temperatures inland
  • Accumulated fuel loads from years of fire suppression in ponderosa pine and mixed-conifer forests

What to Watch This Season

Forecasters are paying particular attention to offshore high-pressure ridging patterns that, when combined with inland heat, can produce the notorious "heat dome" conditions seen in 2021. East wind events — dry, downslope winds that push smoke westward and dramatically elevate fire behavior — are expected to be a recurring feature this summer.

Fire-adapted communities in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) across both states have been urged to complete defensible space work and review evacuation plans before June 1. Agency pre-positioning of crews and equipment is already underway at Northwest Coordination Center in Portland.

Early Season Activity Already Noted

Unusually warm and dry conditions in late April triggered several small fires in the Columbia River Gorge and the foothills of the eastern Cascades — weeks ahead of the typical fire season start. While those fires were quickly contained, they serve as a clear preview of what fire managers expect throughout the summer months.

Residents in fire-prone areas should not wait for official declarations to begin their preparedness activities. The conditions for significant wildfire already exist across much of the region.