Fire forecasters are warning that the Pacific Northwest is on a trajectory toward one of its more dangerous wildfire seasons in years — driven by below-average snowpack, intensifying drought, and temperatures running well above historical norms. With fire activity already elevated well above the 10-year average, land managers and emergency officials are urging communities to prepare now.

A Season Starting Too Early

Across the western United States, 2026 wildfires have already burned more than 2.3 million acres through May 22 — double the 10-year average for the same period. In Oregon and Washington, fire restrictions that typically don't arrive until mid-summer are already in place across central and eastern portions of both states. Burn bans in the Redmond area began as early as April 30.

The National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) predicts significant wildland fire potential east of the Cascades by June, with the entirety of Oregon and Washington under elevated risk by August. The region that typically faces the highest early-season risk — the Columbia Basin and eastern Oregon shrub-steppe — is already showing critically low fuel moisture levels.

What's Driving the Risk

Several climate factors are combining to create a volatile fuel environment in 2026:

  • Drought: Large portions of eastern Oregon and Washington remain in moderate-to-severe drought, with the two-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index showing significant stress markers across the Coast Range and northern and eastern areas.
  • Below-average snowpack: Reduced winter snowpack across the Cascades and Blue Mountains means rivers, soils, and vegetation are receiving less late-season moisture than normal.
  • Above-normal temperatures: Spring temperatures ran 3–5 degrees above average across portions of the Pacific Northwest, accelerating the drying of fine fuels like grass, brush, and slash.
  • Low humidity: Afternoon relative humidity east of the Cascades is frequently dropping to the single digits, a level that fire managers consider critically dangerous.

National Forecasts

AccuWeather's 2026 wildfire forecast projects 65,000 to 80,000 fires will burn between 5.5 million and 8 million acres across the United States this year — with the highest summer wildfire risk concentrated in the western U.S., particularly the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and Northwest. Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah, California, and Montana are all identified as states facing extreme wildfire risk.

Last year's fire season burned 5.1 million acres across 77,850 wildfires. If forecasts hold, 2026 could exceed that mark.

What Residents Can Do

Emergency managers across the Pacific Northwest are urging residents in fire-prone areas to take concrete preparedness steps now, before summer fire season peaks:

  • Create defensible space of at least 30 feet around structures by clearing dead vegetation, brush, and debris
  • Know your evacuation zone and have a family evacuation plan, including multiple routes out
  • Sign up for your county's emergency alert system (such as Oregon Alert or WA Notify)
  • Prepare a go-bag with essential documents, medications, and supplies for at least 72 hours
  • Review and follow current fire restrictions before any outdoor recreation on public lands

For the latest fire weather outlooks, visit the National Weather Service at weather.gov and NIFC's predictive services at nifc.gov.