Fire managers, meteorologists, and climate scientists are warning that the 2026 wildfire season in the Pacific Northwest could be one of the most severe on record. A combination of drought conditions, below-average snowpack, and a warming trend that threatens to rival 2015 has officials urging residents and land managers across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho to prepare now.

NIFC Outlook: Above-Normal Fire Potential This Summer

The National Interagency Fire Center’s seasonal outlook forecasts above-normal fire potential for much of the Pacific Northwest as the summer progresses. The outlook — covering May through August — predicts that above-normal fire activity will spread across all of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Wyoming by August, while persisting across much of California simultaneously.

The forecast is driven by several compounding factors:

  • Below-average snowpack in the Cascades and northern Rockies
  • Drought conditions expanding across eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and southern Idaho
  • Above-average spring temperatures accelerating fuel dry-down
  • Reduced soil moisture across the Columbia Plateau and Great Basin

Oregon Forecasters Sound the Alarm

Oregon fire officials expressed particular concern in April, noting that the NOAA spring outlook showed below-normal precipitation across much of the Pacific Northwest — closing the window for any late-season moisture that might delay fire season onset.

"I’m increasingly concerned 2026 could rival 2015 as the warmest calendar year on record in Oregon," said one state climatologist. That comparison carries significant weight: the 2015 fire season in Oregon was among the worst in modern history, burning hundreds of thousands of acres across the state.

AccuWeather Forecast: 5.5 Million Acres Nationally

AccuWeather’s national fire season forecast projects that fires could burn more than 5.5 million acres across the United States in 2026 — an above-average total driven largely by drought, above-average temperatures, and critically low humidity levels expected across the West and South this summer.

The Pacific Northwest and the Southwest are identified as the regions of greatest concern. Below-average snowpack across the northern Rockies means mountain forests will dry out earlier than usual, extending the fire season window.

National Statistics Already Elevated

Year-to-date statistics confirm that 2026 is already trending above normal. As of May 12, the National Interagency Coordination Center reported 25,865 fires and more than 1.89 million acres burned — well above the 10-year average of approximately 1.05 million acres burned by the same date. The fact that the Northwest is already logging its first large fire of the season in early May underscores the urgency of early preparedness.

What It Means for Residents

For communities across the Pacific Northwest, the outlook is a call to action. Homeowners in the wildland-urban interface should use the coming weeks — before fire season fully takes hold — to create defensible space, review evacuation plans, and assemble go-bags. Land managers are being urged to prioritize fuel reduction projects and ensure fire equipment is ready for early deployment.

Fire managers are also requesting that the public understand the extraordinary fire danger this year and treat every outdoor ignition source with extreme caution. As conditions deteriorate through the summer, additional restrictions and closures should be expected.