Federal fire forecasters are painting a sobering picture for the Pacific Northwest heading into the 2026 fire season. The National Interagency Fire Center's latest predictive services outlook indicates that above-normal fire potential is likely to develop across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho as the summer progresses, driven by early fuel exposure, declining soil moisture, and persistent above-average temperatures.

Key Forecast Drivers

The Climate Prediction Center's temperature outlooks favor above-normal temperatures from May through August across the Pacific Northwest. Soil moisture levels, already stressed heading into spring, are declining rapidly as green-up gives way to curing vegetation. Fire analysts note that analog guidance now leans toward the 2018 fire season as a middle-ground scenario, though the extreme conditions of 2015 — which saw over 10 million acres burned nationally — remain a credible possibility given current fuel exposure and ongoing warmth.

What the Numbers Say

The 2026 fire season is already tracking well above historical averages. As of May 22:

  • 29,023 fires have burned across the United States
  • More than 2.3 million acres have been consumed — double the acreage at this point in 2025
  • 18 uncontained large fires are currently burning nationwide
  • More than 5,000 firefighting personnel are deployed across the country

AccuWeather is forecasting between 65,000 and 80,000 fires and 5.5 to 8 million acres burned nationally before the season ends, with the western United States — particularly the Southwest, Great Basin, and Rocky Mountain region — facing the highest risk.

Pacific Northwest-Specific Concerns

Current green-up is moderating fire potential across the Northwest in the near term, but forecasters expect that window to close rapidly as June approaches. The NIFC outlook notes that the broader pattern supports continued warm, dry conditions through early August. Eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and southern Idaho face particular risk as their already drier climates experience compounding drought stress.

How Agencies Are Responding

Land management agencies across the region are responding proactively. BLM Oregon and Washington implemented early fire restrictions on May 14. National Forests throughout the region are actively assessing Public Use Restriction triggers as conditions evolve. Residents and visitors are urged to monitor local fire danger ratings, follow all restrictions, and have a go-bag and evacuation plan ready before fire season peaks.