Fire managers and meteorologists are sounding the alarm: the 2026 wildfire season is shaping up to be one of the most dangerous on record for the Pacific Northwest. The National Interagency Fire Center's June–September outlook, released June 1, forecasts above-normal significant fire potential across much of the West — including most of the Inland Northwest — and conditions are already exceeding those expectations.

Early-Season Indicators Are Alarming

Jim Wallmann, a U.S. Forest Service meteorologist at NIFC, has been blunt about what he is seeing. "Our fuels are ready for a pretty big season, so even normal summer weather conditions would lead to an above-normal season right now," Wallmann said. He noted that high-elevation timber fires are already occurring two months earlier than historically normal — a troubling indicator of how dry and primed the landscape has become.

The region comes into summer carrying a series of compounding drought factors:

  • Historically low snowpack across most of the West
  • A largely dry May that accelerated fuel curing
  • Early snow water equivalent loss exposing high-elevation fuels ahead of schedule
  • Above-normal temperatures forecast for June through September across the Pacific Northwest

Monthly Outlook by Region

June (Now): Above-normal fire potential is already in effect for most of the Inland Northwest, central Great Basin, and northern California. Eastern Oregon and eastern Washington are at elevated risk as live fuels cure and dead fuels dry rapidly.

July: Above-normal potential spreads into the Idaho Panhandle, southwest Montana, southwest Oregon, and northwest Washington. The risk will cover nearly the entire Pacific Northwest east of the Cascades.

August: Potential remains elevated across most of the Northwest and spreads to all of western Washington and Oregon — meaning even the typically cooler west side of the Cascades faces significant fire risk by late summer.

September: Risk remains above normal across much of the Northwest but is expected to return to normal in the Idaho Panhandle and Utah as fall moisture arrives.

El Nino Adding to the Threat

The NIFC outlook highlights a developing El Nino weather pattern, which is associated with warmer and drier conditions across the Pacific Northwest. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts greater than a 40% chance of a strong El Nino by August or September, and greater than a 35% chance of a very strong El Nino by late fall and winter. This pattern historically correlates with severe fire seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

"If we have really fire-effective weather, the season is going to be extremely busy," Wallmann said. While peak season outcomes depend heavily on individual weather events and monsoonal moisture, Wallmann put the odds of that favorable scenario at "quite low."

Oregon Fire Season Already Underway

In Oregon, fire season has arrived early. City, county, and state agencies have already declared regional fire seasons, drought emergencies, and burn bans — particularly in Southern Oregon's Jackson and Josephine counties, where restrictions went into effect in May. The Oregon Office of Emergency Management is urging all Oregonians to have a family wildfire evacuation plan in hand now, not when fire is at the door.